In an average year 465 SFR homes sell in Southern Marin, and Mill Valley accounts for 60% of those sales. This year 350 homes sold in MV, a 7-year high. Interestingly, neighborhoods fall in and out of favor- such as Middle Ridge once a preferred location is now sometimes a difficult sale. Similarly, during the Great Recession, outlying areas such as Strawberry were selling at much greater discounts than areas walking distance to town. However, when inventory is tight, like current conditions, or when the velocity of transactions reaches a fevered pitch such as ’05-07 when 389, 351 & 344 homes sold in consecutive years, buyers are just thankful to find and ‘win’ anything in MV. 350 homes traded homes in the last 2 years in Mill Valley- one more year of strong sales will likely precede the next recession:
SFR homes in Mill Valley are trading right at the business cycle average home price.
A recent example of strength in the ‘outlying areas’ of Mill Valley: a tear down house on a decent lot in Strawberry went pending in the low/mid $800k range ~ +25% above imputed lot values for that area. Buyers are paying up for finished homes but shying away from large projects. Investors and builders are stepping in and paying premiums for teardowns on lots in desirable neighborhoods and making substantial profits.
The average lot value in Mill Valley as a derivative of home prices is $671,500 and the 95th% lot value is $1.6m. The maximum lot/location value that buyers have historically paid during the last business cycle, and confirmed in 2013, is approximately $3.25m.
Mill Valley is still trading just over its business cycle average, and at a greater discount to Peak prices than most other towns in Marin- a fact which should be compelling for home buyers. Average selling price for homes in $/SQFT:
Historically Marin prices have been very stable with only two periods ever showing year to year price drops, ‘91-’92 during the S&L crisis prices in Marin fell a paltry -2.7%. During the Great Recession prices broke that pattern and fell a whopping -33%. The next recession will likely commence in the next 18-24 months regardless of FED actions. Due to the strength of the SF Bay economy, combined strong demand for Marin homes, and tighter lending conditions, the next recession’s effect is likely to be closer to the S&L crisis than the Great Recession.
Below is the relative strength of Mill Valleys market segments.
Data shows that Mill Valley is currently the best value choice for Southern and Central Marin home buyers with the exception of several neighborhoods in San Anselmo.
Mill Valley is our “Home Market” and we hope to to take a least 4 listings in Mill Valley in 2014, please consider interviewing for your business or recommending us to a friend who may be interested in buying or selling in Mill Valley. Thank you and Happy New Year!