Chart Guide: The below charts include a great deal of data. Besides the two charts immediately below titled “Marin Real Estate Pullbacks” & “Southern Marin Price Index”, all charts show annual data, business cycle average and trailing 12 month stats. The business cycle average can be considered a Â “Intrinsic Value” estimate. The years where the county or town was trading above the business cycle average relates to market conditions dominated by optimism/exuberance and the years where it trades under this business cycle average is more dominated by fear/pessimism/uncertainty &Â restraint. The trailing 12 month data column will eventually meet with 2011 data column and is a barometer of which direction the market is heading. If the trailing 12 month number is higher than the 2011 number, it means market conditions were generally better at the end of 2010 then they are today.
Marin Real Estate Pullbacks– shows the severity of the recent real estate downturn, for perspective. There have only been two years since county-wide average data started being compiled where Marin County-wide Real Estate prices declined year on year– after the S&L crisis in 91-92 where Marin County prices decreased a little over 1% each year. Against this back drop of generally stable upward-sloping prices the Great Recession obliterated this trend with large price drops:
Mile High:Â SouthernÂ Marin County PriceÂ Index is a town-weighted-average by unit sales.Â Tiburon &Â Belvedere RESI prices (condo & SFR) are having very difficult years (both off -20%) as the high end of the market is still very slow and is dragging this SOMA index to the lowest point in the trailing business cycle (about 7 years).
The below 2 charts showÂ Belvedere CA Property prices. the first is median price and the second isÂ TDG Price index which is a mixture of average prices, median prices and is a function of the size of the house.Â Belvedere real estate average SFR prices are off Â -18% and median prices are off about -10%. This is one of the worst years on record for Belvedere.
The TDG index is down 11% which is a closer to telling the full story than the -14% SFR average price decline is due to the lack of high end sales. There have only been 2 homes that have traded so far in 2011 above $4m (thru Dec. 1st), as opposed to 6 in each of the other years of the recession (2008-2011).
Interestingly– lot values have actually increased in 2011. The second chart below shows that the amount people are paying for the actual structure of the house has decreased about 4%. Please compare these charts together thru the years of the great recession. Lots values have fallen 23% from the peak, whereas prices are off 30% from the peak. This means buyers still pay up to live in Belvedere, but they are buying smaller homes at lower price points. However, note that the selling $/sqft of theÂ actuallyÂ house without the lot has increased in 2011– see second chart down:
The most misunderstood market statistic is the below chart selling: $/sqft. Buyers should never try to compare homes by this barometer especially in locations where architecture and lot/locations vary greatly as they do in Marin County. The greatest repository of home value is lot/location which is not explained well by selling $/sqft of the house. It is an interesting statistic for market-wide analysis- and by this metric Belvedere CA Real Estate is down 7% in 2011.
Earning Your Business
The purpose of this Southern Marin Real Estate Blog is to offer greater insight into our local real estate markets than you can find anywhere else– to help you make better decisions for yourselves and your family. The research found in these pages is my competitive advantage in this market. I have yet to find a rational buyer who doesnâ€™t respond to this data; remember most buyers emotionally want to buy a house– they just donâ€™t understand the value proposition. You deserve a agent to represent you on either side of the transaction that has doneÂ their homework.Â If you are thinking about listing or buying a home all I ask is that you include me in your interviewing process.
Thank you & Happy Holidays!