Pending Home Sales Surge

As readers have likely seen in the news, pending US home sales rose more than expected as owners took advantage of tax credits and other government housing stimulus (including FHA junk loans that are going to cost tax payers aplenty down the road).

This is great news, unfortunately it is a trailing indicator, not a leading or coincident indicator, of activity in the real estate market. Pending home sales represent months and sometimes years of research, house hunting, negotiation and inspections before a willing buyer pulls the trigger– especially in the market over the last 30 months.

After 5 strong Months from November – March, activity in Marin County started slowing in April and took a dive in May. The first few days of June saw another surge in home buying interest. My instincts are telling me this rebound in interest may be a short lived and at best is dependent on stock market stability.

The real estate market is like no other market I have ever monitored– it changes on a dime. One day/hour/minute everyone wants to buy a home, and the next moment– the doldrums.

The best leading indicator of home buying activity (in Marin) is , interestingly enough, how much I money I spend each day advertising on Google, and related click data on Adwords. Google would be wise to capture this data and publish a leading indicator of home buying activity.

The upshot– the trend in Home buying activity despite the recent uptick, seems to be slowing.

Please read the Marin Update as well.

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About dwdupont

David DuPont leads a team of real estate professionals (The DuPont Group) under the umbrella of Sotheby’s International Realty. In 2008-2010, Dave sold more homes than any other agent in the firm and brings over 15 years of business experiences to bear for the group including real estate transactions, internet marketing, search engine optimization, and finance. From 2011-2013 Dave continued to be a top producer not only in the Sotheby's office but also within the agent community.