Marin Real Estate
In the last 44 years, there have been only two years (excluding 2008 & 2009) when average home prices in Marin County have decreased from one year to the next: -1.2% in 1991 and -1.4% in 1992â€“ after the S&L crisis.
Marin County average residential home prices fell -12.7% in 2008 and -21% in 2009.Â Â
Â A unit-sale weighted average of Southern, Central & Northern Marin show Southern Marin prices are down -17.4%, Central Marin down -13.1%, and Northern Marin down -18.4% from 2008 levels.
For much more more information from a mile high perspective please see right nav bar, click & read â€œMarin Updateâ€.
42% of the homeÂ on the market inÂ Kentfield are in contract– any number over 20% indicates a healthy market and any number over 30% indicates a sellers market. The current number of 42% of the homes currently on the market in contract is improbably high given the fragile state of the economy, the state budget crisis. In the book “Extraordinary Popular Delsions & The Madness of Crowds” the author documents many historical instancesÂ such as the Tulip ManiaÂ where humans act in unison– the demand hitting various towns in Marin is another instance of this and the patient buyer is advised to sit tight for a few months unless they find the absolutely perfect house.
Kentfield average residential prices on the surface appear to have held up very well. Statistically average prices are down only about 12% from their peak. However, two montser $9m sales in Kentfield in 2009 skew average price data higher and the median is actually a better indicationÂ of whats really happening in the kentfield real estate market. For a discussion of Median Â vs. average stas please see commentary in A Marin County Update.
See below: Average SFR prices are down -11 and median prices are down almost 20%. The demand in the market place sing fall of 2008 is mostly families buying school districts within close commuting proximity to the SF Bay Area job markets. As such, Kentfield has become relatively less desireable.. its got schools of course (Bacich), but the Kentfield weather premium and extra 10-15 minutes of commuting to the SouthernÂ job marketsÂ seems to be scaring some buyers away.
Kentfield sales like most Marin towns except Sausalito are benefitting from the surge that is hitting the marketplace right now.Â 33% of the homes on the market are in contract in Kentfield. This is a very positive number and is a great example of the surge in demand that hit the market inÂ November and continued in January. In a typical year most sellers pull their unsold listings off the market around Thanksgiving and keep them off thru Super Bowl Sunday.Â Â This is the most demand we seen in the market since Summer of 2008. Sellers are advised to list their homes as soon as possbile.
Next update I will segment the below chart by quartile:
The next 5 Graphs represent quarterly pricing relative to the same time period over a period of years. Kentfield prices show greater than average volatility relative to other towns in Marin. Please see year on year data several charts down for greater clarity. While Kentifeld has had a great 4th quarter, median prices are down nearly 20% from 2007 levels.
In the above and below graphs by quarter it is easy to see the seasonality of real estate in Marin. The spring is clearly our chance to get you the best prices of the year.
The below graphs show you similar data as the aboveÂ 5 graphs only by year instead of by quarter. By comparing similar graphs using different time periods we start to understand buyer behavior given the economic conditions and it helps us in our marketing and our negotiations. Please call Dave for more explanation 415-867-6611:
The unit sales data clearly shows buyer reluctance right now…
Very few condo sales in Kentfield in an average year.
There aren’t many condo sales inÂ Kentfield and prices tend to mimic those farther to the north and west than to Larkspur.
Notice the rates of return above and below when you add the effects of leverage (mortgage). Why would you invest your money in anything else? During the early Bubble years I worked at Merrill Lynch as CFP/Financial planner/advisor and everyone i spoke with in the Bay Area was investing in real estate. Young professionals were taking $50,000 bonusâ€™ and leveraging up into $2mm investment properties. I tried to tell everyone we were approaching the end of the cycle and that prices were bound to correct. Unfortunatelyâ€“ there was no data to draw from that showed that real estate prices inÂ the general Bay AreaÂ could actually go downâ€¦ so everybody assumed it was a risk free investment; and by comparison stocks, bonds and mutual funds looked relatively boring with low returns.
Â Census dataâ€¦ the next census due out within the year will help clarify incomes in Kentfield.
In 2008 and 2009, Dave and the DuPont Group areÂ leading agents in Marin County Real Estate. Since the recession began in earnest in 2008, Dave personally closed over 36 sales and $47m in real estate sales, and his group has closed over $60m.Â For 2 years running Dave has sold more homes than any other agentÂ at DB Sotheby’s Intl Realty.Â The data in these pages represents the extra mile we go for clients and is our competitive advantage over other agents in all parts of Marin. Now is not the time to select an agent to represent you because they are a friend or even because they may have represented you in the past. The work habits most realtors has evolved over the past 20 years are not translating well into selling homes in todayâ€™s real estate environment where home buyers make decisions because of financial considerations as opposed to emotional ones.
Dave is a Certified Financial Planner (CFP), Certified Financial Manager (CFM), received his MBA from Pepperdine University, a CA real estate broker and worked for approximately 10 years in the San Francisco financial district. This Blog works in conjunction with The DuPont Groups primary web site.
Please call me to discuss this information in more detail 415-867-6611 â€“ Dave