Year to date 2009 has been terrible year for condo sales in Southern Marin. As compared to 2005-2008, the pace of unit sale is off 70% the average of those years, and the average selling price per square foot is down close to 10%. Tiburon condo sales are being hit the hardest with the price per square foot off 36% year to date from the average price of the last 4 years.

Southern Marin Condo Sales thru 4/28/XX
Year      # Sold      $/sqft
2005          71          569
2006          43          632
2007          49          616
2008          24          593
2009          14          545

Tiburon Condo Sales thru 4/28/XX:
Year        # Sold     $/sqft
2005          15          679
2006          10          725
2007          10          693
2008            6          679
2009            3          445 

Mill Valley Condo Sales thru 4/28/XX:
Year          # Sold      $/sqft
2005            25         536
2006            24         622
2007           19          593
2008           13          590
2009             4          512

Sausalito Condo Sales thru 4/28/XX:
Year          # Sold      $/sqft
2005            28         535
2006             9          550
2007            20         598
2008             5          475
2009             7           607

One of the most notable side effects of a very slow market for condos is that average prices for Southern Marin towns are actually worse than they appear-- with less condos selling than normal, average prices are actually being skewed higher. Mill Valley average home prices are down 21% year to date with only 20% the normal # of condos closings.

The biggest question most home shoppers should be asking themselves is--  with the combination of falling prices and record low interest rates: “what are we waiting for?” If the answer is “we haven’t found the right house yet”—that’s a good answer. If the answer is “we are waiting for the maket to hit bottom”, I would say—get out there and try to find the right house and start negotiating.