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The 2007 Marin market will be remembered in two distinct halves: January
through June was busy across all segments. July through December was
particularly slow for homes priced below $1,850,000, and fairly steady for
sales above $1,850,000. The effect of a stable high end and slow mid market,
combined with a robust first half, drove average price data for 2007
higher: Tiburon +10%; Mill Valley +6.9%; Sausalito +3.4%; and Belvedere
+26%.
Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve bank believes that despite slowing
growth plus housing and credit market turmoil, the U.S. economy is in decent
shape, and unlikely to enter a recession any time soon. Corporate profits
are strong and a weaker dollar is encouraging exports. The broad capital
markets, however, are sending contradictory signals: gold and oil at record
highs, Treasury bonds are in high demand while global equity markets are
increasingly volatile. The latest U.S. economic data is weak — mild inflationary
pressures combined with low job growth, sluggish manufacturing and
the worst holiday shopping season results since 2003.
Interestingly in Marin County, few quality homes have come on the market.
One wonders why sellers are waiting. Part of the answer may be that slowing
sales are a sign of a slowing economy: corporate relocation was almost
non-existent in the second half. Perhaps sellers are tentative due to misleading
media coverage of the sub-prime fallout, thinking that prices will
improve in the Spring. Either way, with so few quality homes on the market,
Marin homeowners who wish to sell in the short-term should take advantage
of the lack of competition across most price points.
Buyers on the other hand are increasingly anxious as inventory levels remain
low. Competition for quality homes continues to be fierce.
Our short-term forecast for Southern Marin: an increase in activity and a
strong Spring 2008. Longer-term: keep an eye on the capital markets as
they foretell activity in the high end; as far as homes below $1,850,000,
focus on economic data, as job growth / contraction foretells activity in this
market segment.
Download this document - 2007-Year-in-Review-.pdf
Southern Marin Review for 2007
The 2007 Marin market will be remembered in two distinct halves: January
through June was busy across all segments. July through December was
particularly slow for homes priced below $1,850,000, and fairly steady for
sales above $1,850,000. The effect of a stable high end and slow mid market,
combined with a robust first half, drove average price data for 2007
higher: Tiburon +10%; Mill Valley +6.9%; Sausalito +3.4%; and Belvedere
+26%.
Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve bank believes that despite slowing
growth plus housing and credit market turmoil, the U.S. economy is in decent
shape, and unlikely to enter a recession any time soon. Corporate profits
are strong and a weaker dollar is encouraging exports. The broad capital
markets, however, are sending contradictory signals: gold and oil at record
highs, Treasury bonds are in high demand while global equity markets are
increasingly volatile. The latest U.S. economic data is weak — mild inflationary
pressures combined with low job growth, sluggish manufacturing and
the worst holiday shopping season results since 2003.
Interestingly in Marin County, few quality homes have come on the market.
One wonders why sellers are waiting. Part of the answer may be that slowing
sales are a sign of a slowing economy: corporate relocation was almost
non-existent in the second half. Perhaps sellers are tentative due to misleading
media coverage of the sub-prime fallout, thinking that prices will
improve in the Spring. Either way, with so few quality homes on the market,
Marin homeowners who wish to sell in the short-term should take advantage
of the lack of competition across most price points.
Buyers on the other hand are increasingly anxious as inventory levels remain
low. Competition for quality homes continues to be fierce.
Our short-term forecast for Southern Marin: an increase in activity and a
strong Spring 2008. Longer-term: keep an eye on the capital markets as
they foretell activity in the high end; as far as homes below $1,850,000,
focus on economic data, as job growth / contraction foretells activity in this
market segment.
Download this document - 2007-Year-in-Review-.pdf