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In the last 50 years, there have been two years (excluding this year) when average home prices in Marin County have decreased from one year to the next: 1% in 1990 and 1.5% in 1991. There are several reasons for Marin’s extraordinary historical price stability, most importantly: the many tech jobs in the area offer a counter-weight during most recessions, as job reduction in technology often lags other sectors; the natural beauty, healthy lifestyle and short supply of housing creates price support; and historically not all Marin towns experience price contractions in the same years-- smoothing this average price data.
In 2008, Marin County average home prices contracted a whopping 13%, skewed by Novato home prices, which were down -23%. The bounty of high-end sales in 2007 skewed the 2007 average prices higher, so in reality the correction to Marin housing stock is less. Still, the magnitude of this contraction is worse than anything Marin County has seen in the post-war era.
Interestingly, Southern Marin has fared much better. Our Southern Marin housing price index is down only 3.3% for 2008. Sausalito average home prices are up this year +2%, Mill Valley prices are flat +.1%), Tiburon is down -8.5%, and Belvedere is down -8.6%. Please see each town page for more detailed commentary.
How far are prices likely to fall? This depends on the severity of the current recession, primarily: SF Bay area employment contraction, which indicates future buying in the bottom half of Marin home sales, and the severity of the global Capital Markets correction, which leads buying in the top segment. Please see page 3 for further analysis.
Employment: Interestingly, higher income jobs which fuel home buying in Southern Marin is still currently fairly stable. We are seeing a small rise in executive relocation as companies cut back in other areas around the country and move some of their producers to Northern California.
As far as the capital markets go, my fear is that we are just now entering the middle phase of this recession which will last at least through 2009 with consumer spending plummeting followed by lower corporate profits and weaker equity markets. We will be lucky to maintain stock price levels above post September 11th (2003) market lows, as future corporate earnings growth (a key determinant of stock prices) becomes even murkier.
Download this document - Middle-Market-2004.pdf
Q4 2008 Newsletter Article
In the last 50 years, there have been two years (excluding this year) when average home prices in Marin County have decreased from one year to the next: 1% in 1990 and 1.5% in 1991. There are several reasons for Marin’s extraordinary historical price stability, most importantly: the many tech jobs in the area offer a counter-weight during most recessions, as job reduction in technology often lags other sectors; the natural beauty, healthy lifestyle and short supply of housing creates price support; and historically not all Marin towns experience price contractions in the same years-- smoothing this average price data.
In 2008, Marin County average home prices contracted a whopping 13%, skewed by Novato home prices, which were down -23%. The bounty of high-end sales in 2007 skewed the 2007 average prices higher, so in reality the correction to Marin housing stock is less. Still, the magnitude of this contraction is worse than anything Marin County has seen in the post-war era.
Interestingly, Southern Marin has fared much better. Our Southern Marin housing price index is down only 3.3% for 2008. Sausalito average home prices are up this year +2%, Mill Valley prices are flat +.1%), Tiburon is down -8.5%, and Belvedere is down -8.6%. Please see each town page for more detailed commentary.
How far are prices likely to fall? This depends on the severity of the current recession, primarily: SF Bay area employment contraction, which indicates future buying in the bottom half of Marin home sales, and the severity of the global Capital Markets correction, which leads buying in the top segment. Please see page 3 for further analysis.
Employment: Interestingly, higher income jobs which fuel home buying in Southern Marin is still currently fairly stable. We are seeing a small rise in executive relocation as companies cut back in other areas around the country and move some of their producers to Northern California.
As far as the capital markets go, my fear is that we are just now entering the middle phase of this recession which will last at least through 2009 with consumer spending plummeting followed by lower corporate profits and weaker equity markets. We will be lucky to maintain stock price levels above post September 11th (2003) market lows, as future corporate earnings growth (a key determinant of stock prices) becomes even murkier.
Download this document - Middle-Market-2004.pdf