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All markets historically move in cycles, and so to does Marin Real Estate.
Interestingly, if you look at Marin County as a whole there is only one
period in the last 47 years (1991-1992) where County-wide prices
actually retreated-- in both 1991 and 1992 average prices decreased
about 1% each year (please see graph below). The same 47 years of
price data for Marin towns show past downturns last about 6-7 years,
with different towns feel pricing pressure in different years.
In 2001-2003, ~30% of Marin Towns saw price declines in each year.
This normal and healthy process was procrastinated by a massive
infusion of liquidity (including Sub-Prime lending) and delayed for 2
years. In 2006, average prices for almost half of Marin County towns
were down. Through August 31st of ‘07, 3 other town prices decreased
making a total of 9 of Marin’s 13 primary towns seeing price declines in
the last 18 months (only Mill Valley, Belvedere, Corte Madera and San
Rafael have dodged price declines. (Source: Bareis MLS)).
Why is This Important?
So long as the local job market stays robust, past data indicates that the
current Marin real estate downturn could be over within 18-36 months
from today.
Going forward:
The average home price in Southern Marin increased from $50,000 in
1970 to over $1,500,000 in 2006 for a 26 year price annual return of
near 10%. At the same rate of appreciation, in 20 years the average
Southern Marin home will cost over $10,000,000—possible-- yes;
likely—no! Future price increases will most likely be smaller—but at least
we get to live here in the meantime
Download this document - Sept-Newsletter-Final-1.pdf
2007 Q3 Review
All markets historically move in cycles, and so to does Marin Real Estate.
Interestingly, if you look at Marin County as a whole there is only one
period in the last 47 years (1991-1992) where County-wide prices
actually retreated-- in both 1991 and 1992 average prices decreased
about 1% each year (please see graph below). The same 47 years of
price data for Marin towns show past downturns last about 6-7 years,
with different towns feel pricing pressure in different years.
In 2001-2003, ~30% of Marin Towns saw price declines in each year.
This normal and healthy process was procrastinated by a massive
infusion of liquidity (including Sub-Prime lending) and delayed for 2
years. In 2006, average prices for almost half of Marin County towns
were down. Through August 31st of ‘07, 3 other town prices decreased
making a total of 9 of Marin’s 13 primary towns seeing price declines in
the last 18 months (only Mill Valley, Belvedere, Corte Madera and San
Rafael have dodged price declines. (Source: Bareis MLS)).
Why is This Important?
So long as the local job market stays robust, past data indicates that the
current Marin real estate downturn could be over within 18-36 months
from today.
Going forward:
The average home price in Southern Marin increased from $50,000 in
1970 to over $1,500,000 in 2006 for a 26 year price annual return of
near 10%. At the same rate of appreciation, in 20 years the average
Southern Marin home will cost over $10,000,000—possible-- yes;
likely—no! Future price increases will most likely be smaller—but at least
we get to live here in the meantime
Download this document - Sept-Newsletter-Final-1.pdf